In 2007, the University of Iceland conducted a survey of 1,000 people that made international headlines: 62% of respondents said it was at least conceivable that elves—known locally as huldufólk or "hidden people"—might actually exist. The finding seemed to confirm stereotypes about Iceland as a mystical land where folklore and modernity coexist. But fast forward to 2022, and the landscape of Icelandic belief has shifted dramatically.

A more recent survey by market research firm Prósent found that only 31% of Icelanders believe in elves, while 57% explicitly do not believe, and 11% remain unsure. That's a striking decline from the 62% figure that circulated for years in travel articles and clickbait headlines.

What Changed?

The drop isn't necessarily about Icelanders becoming more skeptical—it's partly about how the questions were asked. The 2007 survey asked if elf existence was "conceivable" or "possible," a much softer bar than outright belief. It's the difference between "I guess it's possible" and "I believe this is true." The 2022 survey asked more directly about belief, yielding more definitive results.

Still, even 31% belief in elves is remarkably high for a developed Nordic nation. For context, that's roughly the percentage of Americans who believe in ghosts—except Iceland's elves have actual political influence.

Elves vs. Infrastructure

Icelandic elf belief isn't just a quaint cultural quirk. Construction projects have been delayed, rerouted, or modified to avoid disturbing suspected elf habitats. In 2013, a road project near Reykjavik was stalled after protesters claimed it would destroy an elf church. Workers reported repeated equipment malfunctions, which believers attributed to angry hidden folk.

The Icelandic Road and Coastal Administration doesn't officially recognize elves, but it does acknowledge "cultural sensitivity" around certain rock formations and natural sites. When locals insist a boulder houses elves, it's often easier—and cheaper—to build around it than fight public opinion.

Who Still Believes?

The 2022 survey revealed clear demographic patterns in elf belief:

Rural Icelanders are more likely to believe (45%) than city dwellers (30%)
Women believe at higher rates (44%) than men (27%)
People aged 55-64 are the most convinced, with 49% believing
Younger Icelanders are increasingly skeptical

This generational divide suggests that as Iceland urbanizes and younger, internet-savvy cohorts come of age, belief in the hidden folk may continue to decline. But it's unlikely to disappear entirely—huldufólk are too deeply woven into Icelandic identity and landscape.

The Cultural Power of Maybe

Even Icelanders who don't believe in elves often won't deny their existence outright. It's considered rude, like stepping on a cultural landmine. Author Nancy Marie Brown notes that for many Icelanders, the question isn't "Do elves exist?" but rather "Why would you assume they don't?"

This ambiguity—this willingness to leave room for the unknown—is perhaps more telling than any percentage. Whether that's 62%, 31%, or somewhere in between, Iceland remains a place where the boundary between seen and unseen stays deliberately blurred.

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