Kenya's Youth Population: A Demographic Shift

Kenya's population was once extraordinarily young—so young that in the 1980s and early 1990s, more than half of all Kenyans were children under 15. But times have changed. As of 2024, that figure has dropped to approximately 37%, according to World Bank data. While still representing a significant youth population, this marks a dramatic demographic transition.

The Population Pyramid Flips

In 1990, Kenya's birth rate was among the highest in the world, with women having an average of nearly 6 children. This created a classic "youth bulge" where children vastly outnumbered adults. The under-15 demographic consumed enormous resources—schools, healthcare, food—while contributing little economically. Today, that ratio has fundamentally shifted.

The decline has been steady and significant:

• 2020: 39.28% under 15
• 2022: 38.07% under 15
• 2024: 36.84% under 15

Why the Change?

Kenya's demographic shift stems from increased access to family planning, higher education rates for women, and urbanization. The fertility rate has dropped from nearly 6 children per woman in 1990 to approximately 3.1 in 2025. As more Kenyans move to cities and women pursue careers, family sizes naturally shrink.

This transition mirrors patterns seen across developing nations. Countries like Thailand, Brazil, and Bangladesh experienced similar shifts as they modernized. It's not just about fewer babies—it's about economic transformation.

Still One of the World's Youngest

Despite the decline, Kenya remains remarkably youthful by global standards. The median age is just 20 years—compared to 38 in the United States or 48 in Japan. Walk through Nairobi, and you'll notice something striking: the streets buzz with young people. Schools overflow. Youth unemployment is a pressing political issue.

This creates both challenges and opportunities. A large youth population means pressure on jobs and services, but it also represents a potential "demographic dividend"—if Kenya can educate and employ its young people, they could drive decades of economic growth.

The Dependency Dilemma

One key metric tells the story: Kenya's dependency ratio sits at 81.5%. This means for every 100 working-age Kenyans, there are roughly 82 dependents (children and elderly) relying on them. As the under-15 population shrinks and people live longer, this ratio will shift from child dependents to elderly dependents—a challenge Kenya's social systems aren't yet prepared for.

The fact that once seemed permanent—a Kenya where children dominated the demographic landscape—has become historical. The country is growing up, and with that maturation comes an entirely new set of questions about its future.