Japan Sells More Adult Diapers Than Baby Diapers

In Japan, the diaper aisle tells an unexpected demographic story: adult diapers now outsell baby diapers, and have since 2011. This isn't a temporary blip—it's a fundamental shift reshaping an entire industry.

The numbers are stark. Nearly 29% of Japan's population is over 65, with more than 10% aged 80 or older. Meanwhile, the country's birth rate continues its downward spiral, hitting an eighth consecutive year of decline in 2023. When you have more grandparents than grandchildren, the market responds accordingly.

The Great Diaper Pivot

Manufacturers saw this coming. Unicharm Corp., Japan's largest diaper producer, switched to exclusively making adult diapers back in 2012. In 2024, Oji Holdings announced it would cease baby diaper production entirely. When a major manufacturer abandons an entire product category, you know the demographics are serious.

The market projections tell the rest of the story:

• Adult diaper market: Growing 16% to over $600 million by 2027
• Baby diaper market: Shrinking 8% to around $530 million
• Long-term forecast: Adult diaper market expected to hit $4.33 billion by 2030

What This Means for Japan

This isn't just about diapers—it's a window into Japan's demographic crisis. By 2040, projections suggest nearly 35% of the population will be over 65. That's more than one in three people requiring elder care, healthcare, and yes, products designed for aging bodies.

The incontinence market has become big business. Companies are innovating with discreet designs, odor-control technology, and skin-friendly materials that would make baby diapers jealous. Some products are so advanced they're marketed as lifestyle items rather than medical necessities.

A Global Preview

Japan might be leading this trend, but it's not alone. South Korea, Italy, and Germany are following similar demographic trajectories. The question isn't if other developed nations will face this reality, but when.

The diaper aisle has become an accidental barometer of societal aging. Where Japan goes, others may follow—and manufacturers worldwide are taking notes.